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Don't be fooled by the somewhat nerdy attention we here at Insider devote to the NBA draft: It is not an exact science. It's an annual exercise in supposition, conjecture and hope, a high-stakes top-10 (okay, top-60) list arrived at by way of equal measures wisdom and whim.

Now, a look at how the past 20 NBA drafts have panned out, based on John Hollinger's estimated wins added (EWA) ratings? That's a little more scientific, as is the D.R.A.F.T. Initiative's pick-based analysis. But we're not going strictly by EWA here; we've also paid particularly close attention to depth of a draft, among other aspects.


1. 1999: The best draft of the past 20 seasons produced 13 star-caliber players (with a career average EWA of 5-plus), 9 All-Star selections, a 1999 rookie EWA total of 56.7 (meaning these guys contributed immediately) and an EWA combined average of 117.6 in the years since (which means they're still going strong). Highlights included Elton Brand, Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, Richard Hamilton and Shawn Marion in the top 10. But the draft was truly "made" by Ron Artest at No. 16 and Manu Ginobili, perhaps the biggest steal of the modern draft era, at No. 57.

2. 1996: With 11 stars, 10 All-Stars, a rookie total EWA of 57.7 and a cumulative EWA average of 120.1, you can make a strong case for 1996 ahead of 1999. But there were some serious lottery misjudgments, including, inexplicably, Samaki Walker to Dallas at No. 9. Still, Kobe Bryant (No. 13), Peja Stojakovic (No. 14) and Steve Nash (No. 15) more than compensate for whatever it was Garry St. Jean was thinking when he grabbed Todd Fuller at No. 11.

3. 2004: Only three All-Star selections, but nine star-level players, including Josh Smith at No. 17 and Jameer Nelson at No. 20. Steal of the draft? Trevor Ariza at No. 43. (Was Isiah Thomas better at the whole talent-evaluation thing than we remember? Actually, he was.)

4. 2008: Produced the second-best rookie-year EWA in the past 20 years (69.8). A strong top-five of Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love posted an average PER of 16.18. But depth was also key, with Brook Lopez at No. 10, Courtney Lee at No. 22 and George Hill at No. 26 all making solid first-year contributions.

5. 2001: A relatively weak first year for this crew (a rookie-year total EWA of just 36.4), and some high-profile botch jobs (Kwame Brown at No. 1, Eddy Curry at No. 4) leads you to forget how good the rest of this crew was. There were nine star-level performers here, including Pau Gasol, Joe Johnson, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Mehmet Okur, Richard Jefferson, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace and a little NBA Finals MVP you may have heard of named Tony Parker, taken 28th by the brain trust in San Antonio, the best drafting team of the past 20 years.

THE NEXT BEST THING

6. 2003: A crazy-good top five, save for Darko Milicic, that included LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. The total EWA/year for this group is tops in the past 20, at 124.0, but it thins after the Big 4. Only David West (taken 18th) and Josh Howard (what is it with the Texas teams finding gold at the end of the first round?) at 29th rise to star status.

7. 1998: Six stars, five All-Stars and a total EWA average of 116.6. If you can look past big Michael Olowokandi at No. 1 (which would make you stronger than Elgin Baylor), you'd be impressed with Dirk Nowitzki (career PER of 23.8) at No. 9, Paul Pierce (career PER of 21.0) at No. 10 and Rashard Lewis (career PER of 17.9), the kid languishing in the green room, at No. 32.

8. 2005: Only two All-Stars (Chris Paul and Danny Granger) so far, but the overall performance is there, with a fifth-best total EWA average of 106.1 and a total of six players who've cleared the EWA "star" bar. Andrew Bogut isn't one of them, but the good news for Milwaukee is that Charlie Villanueva is.

9. 1995: Five stars but six All-Stars (Theo Ratliff was boosted by the 76ers record and perhaps also by a top-five block percentage of 7.6). Kevin Garnett is the stud of the class, but remember when Antonio McDyess looked absolutely unstoppable before his knees betrayed him?

10. 2002: Six stars and a total EWA/year of 72.7, but it was a very weak start for this class at just 25.9 EWA for their rookie year (second-to-last in the last 20 years). Yao Ming was the lock, Carlos Boozer was the steal (with the 34th overall pick), Jay Williams (who made one poor decision on his motorcycle) was the disappointment and Tayshaun Prince (23rd overall) was the guy who had us thinking Joe Dumars was a genius just one year before the Darko fiasco.

11. 2006: Six stars but a total EWA/year of just 62.0 (14th-best in the past 20 years). What's the old Byrds line? A time to laugh, a time to weep … a time to take Brandon Roy, a time to take Adam Morrison. To everything (turn, turn, turn) there is a season (turn, turn, turn).

MIDDLE OF THE PACK

12. 1992: The No. 1 rookie-year EWA of 79.4, on the strength of Shaquille O'Neal (rookie PER 22.9) and Alonzo Mourning (rookie PER 20.8). But there's not much depth after those guys.

13. 1989: Only five stars but a robust nine NBA All-Stars. Dana Barros? Really? I mean B.J. Armstrong I can see -- that's the Michael Effect. But Dana Barros? At least Dee Brown could dunk a little.

14. 1997: Three stars is no great shakes, but the total EWA/year of 77.5 is 10th-best of the past 20 years. Credit Tim Duncan and Chauncey Billups, who pick up the slack for Tony Battie and Adonal Foyle.

15. 1994: Four stars and a third-best rookie year EWA of 61.5. Plenty of poster boys for the tendency to overrate strong college performances at high-profile schools, including Eric Montross, Khalid Reeves, Bill Curley and Monty Williams.

16. 1993: Three stars and seven All-Stars. When you're feeling blue, hum a few bars of "The Ballad of Vin Baker" (taken eighth overall by Milwaukee). When you're running through the pre-dawn streets getting your "Theme From Rocky" on, think of Sam Cassell (taken 24th overall by the Rockets, further supporting the "don't mess with Texas near the end of the first round" postulate).

THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL

17. 2007: Kevin Durant has been the only standout from this group thus far, but it's too early to really evaluate the entire draft class and its 26.3 rookie year EWA. Greg Oden is still a work in progress and there are signs of promise from Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Thaddeus Young and Al Thornton.

18. 1990: Gary Payton and Derrick Coleman are the only stars in the lot (I have to assume we're talking about the young, slimmer Derrick Coleman). Bonus points to the year for producing Jayson Williams at No. 21. Demerits for Alec Kessler at No. 12.

19. 1991: The NBA and its fans saw fit to name seven players from this draft to the All-Star team at one time or another, including Larry Johnson and Kenny Anderson (which I can see), Steve Smith, Terrell Brandon and Dale Davis (which are maybe understandable taking into account some peak performances and some strong-team rub-off effects), and Chris Gatling (which is straight-up inexplicable). According to EWA, and according to anyone who understands the intimidating value added by the finger wag and the baritone, Dikembe Mutombo is far and away the best player to come out of this draft.

20. 2000: Here are the second, third and fourth picks: Stromile Swift, Darius Miles and Marcus Fizer. Ouch. There have been 110 star-caliber players in the past 20 drafts. On average, there are only about five per draft. Some years you get 1999, with 13 stars, and some years end up like 2000, which had just two star-level EWA players (and truth be told, we're being pretty kind to Mike Miller when we use that term, despite the very hip hair).