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ESPN Insider
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Topic Started: Jun 25 2009, 09:37 PM (500 Views)
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fgh
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Jun 28 2009, 04:01 AM
Post #16
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Geezuz kcufing christ. The magic are just loading up
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james_the_ripper
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Jun 28 2009, 05:22 AM
Post #17
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- fgh
- Jun 28 2009, 04:01 AM
Geezuz kcufing christ. The magic are just loading up We need to get Bosh to compete!
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fgh
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Jun 28 2009, 05:42 AM
Post #18
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no chance of us ever giving anything away to get either amrae or bosh :(
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james_the_ripper
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Jun 28 2009, 09:25 AM
Post #19
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I think we have a better chance of getting Bosh then Amar'e.
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Dan Le Batard
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Jun 28 2009, 11:32 AM
Post #20
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Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next.
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Isn't there a rumour of Amare to the Warriors for Curry being the centrepiece in a trade with the Suns?
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Bullets
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Jun 28 2009, 11:37 AM
Post #21
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- Rod Farva
- Jun 28 2009, 11:32 AM
Isn't there a rumour of Amare to the Warriors for Curry being the centrepiece in a trade with the Suns? its what all the talk is about.
the new rumour is talks have hit a major road block because we have no interest in trading Curry, all the other parts of this trade seem to be ok just wondering now if the Suns will look to ship him elsewhere cause we won't give up Curry.
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Dan Le Batard
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Jun 28 2009, 11:38 AM
Post #22
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Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next.
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Yeah just read an article about Nelson saying no interest in trading Curry.
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james_the_ripper
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Jun 29 2009, 12:57 PM
Post #23
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Amare Stoudemire's agent, Charles Grantham, told The Arizona Republic that he would like a commitment from the Suns to either trade or sign his client to an extension.
"Either he's in or out," Grantham said Sunday. "You're going to have to really make a commitment to him that he's part of your program going forward and that you're going to work around him. Those decisions seemingly are still up in the air. They are going to have to be made at some point. You'll have to talk about either committing to him or trading him."
Grantham and Suns general manager Steve Kerr spoke Sunday and plan to talk more soon.
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james_the_ripper
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Jun 29 2009, 09:04 PM
Post #24
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Given current projections, seven teams -- the Detroit Pistons, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors -- could have significant money to spend in 2009.
However, it's not as much as they had hoped. At the beginning of the season, teams were projecting a $62 million salary cap in the summer of 2009.
Now, given the economy, league sources suggest that the cap will likely come in right around this season's $58.6 million cap number. For the purposes of this projection, we're going with a $58.7 million cap.
Furthermore, of the teams mentioned, only three -- the Pistons, Grizzlies and Thunder -- are likely to have significant money to make a play for free agents. The other teams would have to waive key free agents to get far enough under the cap.
The Pistons seem to be in the best place to land a big-time free agent. They could be around $18.5 million under the cap if they let Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace walk. If Kwame Brown decides not to pick up his player option (which is highly unlikely), they would be around $22 million under.
The Grizzlies could push themselves somewhere between $13 million and $14 million below the cap, depending on whether they rescind their qualifying offer for Juan Carlos Navarro.
Given a projected $58.7 million cap, the Thunder could have roughly $13-14 million in cap space this summer, depending on what they do with Chucky Atkins.
The Kings will be $7.5 million under the cap, assuming they renounce Rashad McCants.
Those are the easy scenarios. There are a few more complicated ones that could result in cap space.
The Blazers were looking at massive cap room before Darius Miles' comeback. Now that Miles is back in the NBA, his $9 million salary comes back on the Blazers' books. The Blazers won't have significant cap space until they renounce the rights to restricted free agent Channing Frye, who has a fairly significant cap hold. If they waive Frye, they should be $8.7 million under the cap. If they were to waive Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw, they could be around $15 million under. Blake makes $4 million next season, while Outlaw makes $3.6 million. However, neither player has compensation protection on his contract. If Portland decided to pick up neither, the Blazers could be serious players.
The Hawks could get roughly $14 million under, but it would require their letting go of Marvin Williams, Mike Bibby and the rights to Josh Childress. More likely, they'll re-sign at least Williams and Zaza Pachulia, and won't have significant cap room.
The Raptors could be around $9 million under if they let Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Joey Graham all walk. That's a possibility. However, Bryan Colangelo has been saying he'd like to re-sign Marion. If the two come to an agreement, the Raptors' cap room is essentially gone.
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james_the_ripper
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Jun 29 2009, 09:05 PM
Post #25
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Free agent class of 2009:
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Last summer, a few free agents cashed in big-time. Baron Davis got $65 million from the Los Angeles Clippers, and Elton Brand walked away from the Clippers to the Philadelphia 76ers to the tune of the $80 million. Several restricted free agents, particularly Andre Iguodala, Luol Deng, Emeka Okafor and Josh Smith, scored nice deals as well.
Also, during the summer and early fall, eight players from the 2005 NBA Draft who were eligible for extensions -- Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger, Francisco Garcia, Jason Maxiell and Martell Webster -- received some love from their teams.
The rest of the summer's free-agent class?
Only a handful found anything near the money that other free agents got on the open market. Several, including Josh Childress and Nenad Krstic, bolted for Europe. (Krstic subsequently returned to the NBA with the Thunder.)
And a number of 2005 first-round picks, such as Marvin Williams, David Lee and Raymond Felton, were unable to work out deals with their respective teams.
Once again, the main culprit was the dreaded NBA salary cap. Only a few teams -- the Sixers, Clippers, Warriors and Grizzlies -- really had the money to pick up a free agent from another team. One of those teams, Memphis, didn't spend its money (although it did make a play for Smith) and entered the season nearly $10 million under the cap.
This summer, things could get even tighter, as the NBA suffers from the worldwide financial crisis. For the first time in a while, the NBA salary cap is projected to stay flat or go up slightly. So is the luxury tax threshold. With owners feeling the pain, this market is looking like one of the worst for free agents.
The other key factor is LeBron James and the rest of the 2010 free-agent class. A number of teams are trying to create salary cap space for the summer of 2010, when LeBron, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Tyson Chandler, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Joe Johnson, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Redd can hit free agency. So for the first time in years, teams like the New York Knicks are being financially responsible. All of which means that relatively few teams are expected to use their midlevel exception this summer.
Those factors could end up causing major problems for a solid if not spectacular free-agent class of 2009.
With the frenzy starting Monday and Tuesday with a number of decisions by players on whether to opt out or exercise options to return to their teams, and accelerating just after midnight on Wednesday morning, when teams can start negotiating with free agents, let's look at who could be available in 2009:
Group I: The "Big 10" early termination or player option candidates
These are the players with an early termination option or a player option in their contracts, meaning they can opt to forgo the final year(s) of their deals and instead become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2009. Here's the star-studded lineup:
1. Kobe Bryant, Lakers (ETO) Two summers ago, when Kobe was pining for a trade, it looked as though he might tear up his contract in 2009 and leave the Lakers if he weren't traded first. Now, with one title already under their belts, the Lakers look like serious championship contenders for the next few years. Whether Kobe opts out or not, you have to believe he will hang around for the ride, and he's already indicated he wants to stay.
2. Carlos Boozer, Jazz (PO) During the season, Boozer told ESPN.com's Chris Sheridan he would opt out, and he was believed to have one foot out the door. But an injury-plagued season now leaves some doubt as to whether he'll actually opt out. If he does, there's really only one team with cap space that appears to be a fit: the Detroit Pistons. That could be a problem for Boozer. The Jazz might be willing to wave goodbye, as they are looking to re-sign another power forward from their own roster, restricted free agent Paul Millsap. At the same time, a source close to the Pistons told ESPN.com that Boozer is not their highest priority in free agency this summer. So Boozer might have to decide not to opt out, to accept less money or to attempt to work out a sign-and-trade with the Jazz and another team.
3. Hedo Turkoglu, Magic (ETO) Turkoglu has already indicated that he'll opt out of his contract. He had another strong season for the Magic and might be able to cash in with a bigger deal this summer. Then again, with so few teams holding cap space, he may have to settle for less to return to Orlando. With the Magic's trade for Vince Carter on the night of the draft, Orlando won't make a huge offer.
4. Anderson Varejao, Cavs (PO) The Cavs brought in Shaq for some help in the middle, but they'll need Varejao's energy and toughness at the 4 if they expect to compete for a title next season. That should put Varejao in a much better negotiating position than he was in two years ago, and for that reason he is expected to opt out.
5. Al Harrington, Knicks (PO)
Harrington is expected not to opt out -- he is thrilled to be in New York, as Mike D'Antoni's system has him putting up the best numbers of his career. Even with those numbers, there isn't much of a market for him.
6. Mehmet Okur, Jazz (ETO) Okur's agent said on Sunday that the Utah center is "leaning toward opting out." It's unclear how much money Okur could command on the market, but he might be willing to go to Europe. Still, it appears that Okur ultimately hopes to stay with the Jazz and that an extension can be worked out.
7. Jamal Crawford, Hawks (ETO) When he was traded to the Hawks last week, Crawford had to sign a document that said he wouldn't opt out of his contract this summer, so he's not going anywhere.
8. Eddy Curry, Knicks (ETO) Curry's market value is virtually nil at the moment, and he's due to make about $31.5 over the next three seasons, so it's inconceivable he would leave so much cash on the table. But the Knicks will do backflips if he decides to move on.
9. Kyle Korver, Jazz (ETO) Korver is one of the top shooters in the league, but it will be hard for him to find a team willing to give him much more than what the Jazz are paying him.
10. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cavs (ETO) There's virtually no chance that Ilgauskas opts out of his deal in Cleveland, despite the fact that Shaq is going there. He's played for only one franchise, and on the open market, he couldn't earn nearly what the Cavs are paying him.
Other notables: Ricky Davis, Clippers (PO); Kwame Brown, Pistons (PO); Mark Blount, Heat (ETO).
Group II: The restricted free agents
As mentioned above, eight players from the draft class of 2005 have signed extensions. The remaining players listed below will be restricted free agents in the summer.
As we've seen in the past few years, it's unusual for restricted free agents to change teams: Last summer, not one major restricted free agent signed with another NBA team. A few grew so desperate that they signed with European teams instead, though that option has dwindled given the economic problems in Europe.
But while we should expect most restricted free agents to stay home, there could be several exceptions this year, starting with the first two names on the list:
1. David Lee, Knicks Lee is a double-double machine who has become a favorite among both New York fans and coaches around the league. The Knicks have a stated goal of clearing cap space for 2010, which means they might not be in a position to match a substantial offer sheet. So Lee is the rare topnotch restricted free agent that an opposing team might be able to steal away.
2. Paul Millsap, Jazz With Boozer out for most of the season, Millsap proved he is a potential All-Star power forward -- he's unstoppable on the boards and he can put the ball in the basket. Detroit, Memphis and Oklahoma City are all potentially interested, though the Jazz are going to try to bring him back. If Boozer opts out, I don't think there's any way the Jazz let Millsap get away. But if Boozer doesn't opt out, there's a chance the Jazz won't be able to afford both of them.
3. Marvin Williams, Hawks Williams has as much raw talent as anyone else in the class of 2005, but he's been frustratingly inconsistent in his first four years with the Hawks. While he'll probably stay in Atlanta, he's not playing well enough to earn anything close to the $60-64 million over five years that Granger got last fall, to contrast Williams with one small forward from his draft class.
4. Charlie Villanueva, Bucks Villanueva has talent but hasn't always shown the competitive heart teams want to see. Still, he's coming off the best season of his career. The key question is, can the Bucks afford him? With last week's trade of Richard Jefferson, they probably got far enough under the cap to make a strong run at him, but they'll have competition from teams like the Pistons, Grizzlies and Thunder.
5. Raymond Felton, Bobcats Felton has been looking over his shoulder at Larry Brown's young protégé, D.J. Augustin. Felton can dish out assists, but his poor shooting has hampered his career. Augustin performed well enough as a rookie that it's unlikely the Bobcats would match a big offer sheet for Felton. If the Bobcats can get Felton for the midlevel exception, I think they keep him. If he gets a bigger offer somewhere else, I think he's gone. For what it's worth, Michael Jordan has said that the Bobcats expect to keep Felton.
6. Josh Childress, Hawks Childress shocked many in the NBA by deciding to bolt for Greece last summer. It's unclear whether he'll decide to return to the NBA this fall, though it seems very likely he'll be back eventually. But with bad blood lingering over how his negotiations went last summer with Atlanta, the current expectation is that we shouldn't expect to see him return to the Hawks, though they still hold his rights.
7. Ramon Sessions, Bucks Teams are always in pursuit of point guards, and Sessions has caught the eye of a number of teams. The Bucks probably can't afford to keep both Villanueva and Sessions. By drafting Brandon Jennings in the first round, they signaled their intentions to pursue Villanueva more than Sessions.
8. Nate Robinson, Knicks Robinson's stock has been skyrocketing, and the Knicks probably can't afford to keep him as they try to re-sign David Lee and clear cap space for LeBron James (and/or others). Look for Sacramento, among other teams, to make a run at him, especially after the Kings made a big play for him at the trade deadline.
9. Marcin Gortat, Magic Gortat is big, fairly athletic and very tough, and the Magic may be hard-pressed to match a substantial offer to him. He should be able to get at least a four-year deal worth $16-18 million.
10. Jarrett Jack, Pacers Jack ended up beating out T.J. Ford at the end of the year for the Pacers' starting point guard position. He might get offers in the range of the midlevel exception, and it's not clear the Pacers can afford to re-sign him. One team to watch: the Hawks, who could bring him back to Atlanta, where he played college ball.
Other notables:: Linas Kleiza, Nuggets; Glen Davis, Celtics; Channing Frye, Blazers; Rashad McCants, Kings; Hakim Warrick, Grizzlies; Leon Powe, Celtics; Carlos Delfino, Raptors; Joey Graham, Raptors; Ike Diogu, Kings; Jamario Moon, Raptors; Aaron Gray, Bulls; Shannon Brown, Lakers; Ersan Ilyasova, Bucks; Rob Kurz, Warriors; Josh McRoberts, Pacers.
Group III: The real, honest-to-goodness unrestricted free agents Finally, here are the guys who will be on the market with no strings attached. Although there is a lot of star power here, most of the big names are on the back end of their careers.
1. Ben Gordon, Bulls Gordon is an explosive scorer and has one of the sweetest jump shots in the game. But he is undersized and streaky, and he doesn't play great defense. On virtually every team, his best position will be coming off the bench as a high-scoring sixth man. The question is: What is that worth in today's NBA?
Gordon will have plenty of suitors -- the Bulls want to re-sign him badly and their main competition will come from the Pistons -- but as his agent learned last summer when he sought to get Gordon traded to another team via a sign-and-trade, it's going to be tough to find a team willing to break the bank for him.
2. Shawn Marion, Raptors Marion can still score, defend and rebound. But he turned 31 in May and has seen his production slip the past two years. He struggled a bit in Toronto, too, raising a legitimate question about how much a team will be willing to spend on him given his age and reputation for being difficult. The Raptors seem to be his best chance of landing more than a midlevel deal.
3. Trevor Ariza, Lakers Ariza's youth, athleticism and defense make him a valuable prospect. The Lakers may have to choose between him and Lamar Odom -- which has a few teams circling like vultures, waiting to swoop in and grab Ariza -- but I doubt anyone outbids L.A. for him.
4. Lamar Odom, Lakers Odom will be one of the most coveted free agents on the open market. Phil Jackson likes him, but with Kobe, Bynum and Pau Gasol on the roster, combined with the emergence of Ariza, the Lakers don't need him. However, Odom is a great team guy who can rebound the ball and initiate the offense, and doesn't need the ball to be effective. If he doesn't stick in L.A., a line of teams will be waiting to snatch him up.
5. Andre Miller, Sixers Miller slowed down a little in 2008-09, after having one of his best seasons in 2007-08. But some GM who needs a veteran point guard will gamble on him this summer. Then again, can the Sixers afford to lose him?
6. Jason Kidd, Mavericks Kidd continues to claim that the reports of his demise are exaggerated, and his solid play this season backs him up. Still, he's a 36-year-old point guard.
Some team is always willing to give up money for a point guard with his court vision, but I wonder whether he'll be able to garner more than a midlevel deal, should Dallas decide to move on.
7. Mike Bibby, Hawks Bibby had a solid season as the Hawks' starting point guard, but it's hard to see him making anything near what he's made the past few years. The Hawks are a young team still searching for a long-term answer at the point. Bibby was a nice stopgap for 18 months, but I doubt he has a long-term future in Atlanta unless he's willing to take much less -- especially when you factor in that the team traded for Jamal Crawford, drafted Jeff Teague and could be pursuing Jarrett Jack in free agency.
8. Rasheed Wallace, Pistons Sheed continues to be one of the most baffling players in the league. When he's on, he's one of the best big men in the game. When he's off ... he can be way off. He'll turn 34 in September, which makes you wonder whether he's still worth the risk. The Pistons won't re-sign him, so where could he be going next? Short of his making a jump to Charlotte -- he and Larry Brown remain close friends -- would any other team in the league be open to paying him? The Spurs and Magic are the teams to watch closely.
9. Allen Iverson, Pistons Iverson's late-season disappearance in Detroit didn't help his reputation. He's still a good player, but two nagging questions will hurt his case for a big deal: One, with the exception of that magical season in Philly under Larry Brown, is Iverson a winner? Two, does he have any game left? The answer to Question 1 seems to be no. The answer to No. 2 seems to be a qualified yes. I just don't know how much he'll earn this summer and I can't find any teams that are willing to stick their necks out for him. I think retirement for Iverson isn't out of the question.
10. Ron Artest, Rockets Artest has been on good behavior off the court, and he helped lead the Rockets on an unexpected postseason run this May. However, the Rockets also shopped him pretty hard at the trade deadline in February. Signing him is still somewhat of a risky move. Which team will have the courage to pull it off?
Other notables: Antonio McDyess, Pistons; Drew Gooden, Bulls; Zaza Pachulia, Hawks; Chris Wilcox, Knicks; Anthony Parker, Raptors; Chris Andersen, Nuggets; Marquis Daniels, Pacers; Sean May, Bobcats; Brandon Bass, Mavs; Joe Smith, Thunder; Grant Hill, Suns; Ronald Murray, Hawks; Stromile Swift, Nets; Robert Swift, Thunder; Rasho Nesterovic, Pacers; Keith Bogans, Bucks; Johan Petro, Nuggets; Bobby Jackson, Kings; Dahntay Jones, Mavericks; Luther Head, Heat; Rodney Carney, Wolves; Cedric Simmons, Kings; Damon Jones, Bucks; Desmond Mason, Thunder; Chris Mihm, Grizzlies; Gerald Green, Mavericks; Wally Szczerbiak, Cavs; Jason Collins, Timberwolves; Jarron Collins, Jazz; Shelden Williams, Wolves; Stephon Marbury, Celtics; Mikki Moore, Celtics; Juwan Howard, Bobcats; Maceo Baston, Pacers; Morris Almond, Jazz.
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james_the_ripper
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Jul 3 2009, 03:38 AM
Post #26
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Lakers subbing in Artest for Ariza
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I can't remember the last time I saw a de facto trade in free agency, but today it took only a couple hours for one to happen.
This afternoon on the West Coast former Rocket Ron Artest agreed to a deal to join the Lakers, and then later this evening came the news that former Laker Trevor Ariza had agreed to join the Rockets. The two players play the same position (small forward) and signed for similar money (the full mid-level exception), so it basically comes down to two teams' differing needs and what those players can provide.
From L.A.'s side, they're plugging Artest into Ariza's role at small forward as a floor spacer, transition finisher and occasional inbound-pass stealer. In terms of stats, this works. At small forward, L.A. mostly needs a floor spacer, and as far as floor-spacing ability goes, Artest is superior to Ariza -- he shot 39.9 percent on 3s last season, Ariza 31.9 percent. Although Ariza shot much better in the postseason, he's at just 29.9 percent for his career. So although it's possible he made a lasting improvement late last season, it's at least as likely that he was just having a good month. Overall, Artest isn't as efficient as Ariza offensively because he tends to force terrible shots, but that's likely to be less of a problem in a system in which he's the fourth option behind Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Additionally, he's a good passer who might see his assist rate bump significantly in L.A.
Ariza is also a better rebounder, but Artest more than offsets that with his defense -- not that Ariza is a slouch, as any Denver Nuggets inbound passer will attest, but Artest is among the very best on-ball defenders in basketball. That difference is likely to become particularly important should the Lakers find themselves facing Cleveland in next year's Finals, where a certain LeBron James is likely to be the focal point of the Cavs' offense. Artest is one of the few players in the league who can match James physically, so he'd be a tremendous asset in such a pairing.
This move already is making some Lakers fans uneasy. Any time a championship team makes a prominent personnel move, a significant chorus says, "Why mess it up?" But in truth, nothing messes it up more than standing pat. Bryant isn't getting any younger, and the arms race in the East between Orlando and Cleveland had to get the Lakers' attention. Artest will give them an ace defender to send out against James or Vince Carter in the Finals, not to mention the likes of Manu Ginobili, Carmelo Anthony and Brandon Roy on the Lakers' likely road through the Western Conference playoffs.
The big risk, here, of course, is that it's Ron Artest and, as he showed in Indiana, few players can be more destructive to a team's hopes. But there are a couple of things working in the Lakers' favor here. First, he's been reasonably well-behaved since leaving the Pacers. Second, his worst ball-hogging habits tend to pop out when he's the go-to guy -- but as a role player, he should be extremely effective.
And most importantly, they have Phil Jackson. Perhaps nobody in the history of the game has dealt more successfully with problem players than Jackson, most notably when he coaxed three extremely productive seasons out of Dennis Rodman with the Bulls.
L.A. appears to be getting Artest at reasonable terms, as well -- a three-year, $18 million deal that likely will end up being about half what Ariza gets on the open market (in total dollars). There's a reason for that, of course, as nobody can trust Artest to behave himself for the full tenure of a long-term deal, or the full tenure of a 10-day contract for that matter. But in the Lakers' case, it's a reasonable gamble as they try to get as much as possible out of Bryant's and Gasol's prime years. For Houston, on the other hand, it wasn't. Their time horizon has been pushed farther out into the future by the injuries to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, making the brighter future of Ariza a more important consideration than the greater present value offered by Artest.
Houston committed five years the full mid-level for Ariza (an estimated $33.5 million), which is risky -- just look back at the history of players getting the full mid-level exception. The difference here is that most of those players were in their late 20s and early 30s, where is Ariza just turned 24 a few days ago and should still be in the middle of his prime at the end of the contract.
He also fills in a glaring hole at small forward left by the departure of Artest and the free agency of McGrady, though he's not the offensive initiator that those two players were.
Signing Ariza (or keeping Artest, for that matter) does come with two major downsides for Houston. First, it puts them into the luxury tax for this season, though they are close enough to the line that they an likely wriggle out of it by the trade deadline by paying somebody to take Brian Cook off their hands or another deal of that ilk.
Second, it cuts into their cap hoard for 2010. Houston projected to have enough money to sign a player to maximum contract next summer; now, depending on next year's cap number, the Rockets would probably have to cut Chuck Hayes and renounce Kyle Lowry to get far enough under to make a run at native Texan Chris Bosh or some of the other plum free agents out there.
But for both teams, it looks like the right move. There was no reason for the Rockets to bring back Artest in a situation where they weren't going to be competing for a championship immediately, and with Yao out indefinitely the Rockets are definitely taking a step back.
And for the Lakers, it was a good proactive move to ward off post-championship complacency. Too many times teams stand pat after winning a title and watch things fall apart a year later -- Miami in the summer of 2006, for instance, or these very Lakers in the summer of 2002. L.A. realized it needed to rearm to keep up with Orlando and Cleveland, and today it upgraded one of the two positions where it didn't already have a star.
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fgh
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Aug 9 2009, 11:56 PM
Post #27
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james can we get some new stuff here. Just saw a chad ford article i wouldnt mind reading, the one on who can afford the 2010 FA. Cheers mate
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fgh
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Nov 1 2009, 09:20 AM
Post #28
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Jimbo, if ya still got access to hollingers work, can you please paste the 09-10 All-Decline team. Should be interesting reading
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james_the_ripper
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Nov 18 2009, 11:05 AM
Post #29
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The NBA is something of a zero-sum game: For some players to improve, it means that an equal number of players must get worse. So it only follows that in the wake of my All-Breakout Team earlier this week, we have to bring up the more unpleasant topic of which players are likely to see their output decline.
Thanks to injuries, a couple of examples are really obvious: Yao Ming and Leon Powe spring to mind, for instance. That's not quite what we're after here, however. I'm going to introduce you to 16 players who were active on opening day, but nonetheless are extremely likely to see their numbers drop a notch or two from a season ago.
The envelopes please:
Group I: The Fluke Rule players
In a good season, I can build half my All-Decline Team from this group alone. Alas, this season there are only two players the Fluke Rule applies to, instead of the usual six or seven. For those who don't know, the Fluke Rule applies to any player 28 or older whose PER jumps by more than three points in a single season. On average, his PER drops by nearly three points the following season, with more than 90 percent of such players seeing a drop of some kind.
Joel Przybilla, Blazers: Przybilla shot 62.5 percent last season, easily besting his career high (59.8); at one point he was shooting 84 percent last season. Clearly, he will have a hard time maintaining that number. A couple other factors also bode poorly for him. First, Greg Oden took his job as the starter. Second, Przybilla led the league in rebound rate last season with a career-high 22.8 mark. While that's a positive looking backward, it isn't looking forward; that number, as with almost any league-leading total, is a lot more likely to go down than up.
Shaquille O'Neal, Cavaliers: Setting aside the awfulness of Cleveland's first two games, Shaq has several factors working against him. He shot 59.5 percent from the line last season, his best mark in six years. And given how often he gets to the stripe, a drop back to his long-term average of around 50 percent would take a bite out of his numbers. His 62.3 true shooting percentage was a career-high, too, and spikes in that category usually return to earth a year later. Shaq is also 37, of course, and no longer has Phoenix's expert trainers to prop him up.
Group II: Let's see you do that again
John Salmons, Bulls: He blew away all of his career bests last season, but Salmons' shooting marks from last season look fishy to me. He hit 41 percent of his 3s and 42.9 percent of his long 2-pointers -- after making only 32.5 percent in the latter category in the previous four seasons. While he certainly has improved his stroke, I have a very hard time believing he's the elite-caliber shooter he appeared to be last season, especially given his line-drive delivery.
Troy Murphy, Pacers: Few people outside of Indianapolis realize what a season Murphy had in 2008-09: He hit 45 percent on 3s, good for third in the league, and led all power forwards in defensive rebound rate. At age 28, it was the definition of a career year. Bravo to him for that, but here's the downside: Both numbers vastly exceeded his career norms, and he faces long odds on matching them this season.
Jameer Nelson, Magic: Orlando's point man and locker-room leader has a bright future ahead of him, but I'm skeptical that he'll ever shoot as well as he did a season ago from midrange. Nelson shot 54.5 percent on long 2s, leading the league by a comfortable margin, and shot 56 percent on any 2 away from the basket -- a category in which no other player in basketball topped 50 percent. Nelson won't top 50 percent on either this time around, and that will take his other numbers down a peg.
Nene, Nuggets: Staying healthy for the first time since Columbus landed, Nene blew up with a 60.4 percent mark from the field and spiked it with a career-best 72.3 percent from the line. Overall, his 64.5 TS% ranked third in the league and was a sharp improvement from his career norms in the high 50s. Needless to say, I am skeptical he can keep it up and suspect his shooting marks will revert to something more in line with his career averages; Thursday night's 2-for-7 from the floor and 3-for-8 from the line provide additional support in this regard.
Flip Murray, Bobcats: Murray's basic M.O. is that he shoots just about every time he gets the ball, and as long as he makes shots, that's a good thing. The problem is that every year of his career he had a TS% below 50 … until last season with Atlanta, when everything magically clicked and he posted a 54.3 TS%. He also crushed his previous career high by hitting 36 percent of his 3s. I'm dubious he can repeat that effort at age 30, especially with a change of scenery in the offseason.
Group III: Second-half sliders
I'm always suspicious of players whose numbers drop off after midseason, and in each of these cases I have a couple other reasons to worry.
Devin Harris, Nets: Harris is a heck of a player and may make the All-Star team again, but I'm not sure he's quite as good as he looked in the first half of last season when he averaged nearly 10 free throw attempts a game and was firing in two-handed set shots from his own backcourt. The biggest worry is the pounding he takes on his drives to the basket: His numbers tailed off pretty dramatically at the end of last season partly due to his injuries, and he has been banged up again this preseason.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cavs: Ilgauskas seemed to age in dog years toward the end of last season, particularly in the playoffs, and his indicators were already pointing downward at age 34. He takes half as many inside shots as he did three years ago, and he virtually never gets to the line anymore. Throw in the adjustment to coming off the bench -- it's not easy getting those old bones warmed up, which is why most players perform better as starters -- and his numbers are likely to decline.
Tim Duncan, Spurs: Duncan finished fifth in the league in PER last season despite his dramatic tail-off due to knee problems over the final two months. Even a wide-eyed Spurs optimist would concede he'll have a tough time landing in the top five again this season, as he'll have a tough time recording his usual output in blocks and rebounds. While he grabbed 16 boards Thursday night, all the offensive boards Joakim Noah got at his expense weren't a good omen.
I don't want to overstate things -- he'll still make the All-Star team and be the Spurs' go-to guy for long stretches -- but I'm expecting a bit less dominance than we have become accustomed to in past seasons.
Group IV: What goes up must come down
Jason Terry, Mavs: A small, speedy guard, at age 32, coming off a season in which he scored dramatically more often than the rest of his career, makes for a darned good bet for regression. Terry averaged 23.7 points per 40 minutes last season; his previous three seasons were in the 19s. He also shot 48.8 percent on long 2s, another number that is nearly certain to decline this season -- most players, even sweet-shooting guards, are around 40 percent in this category.
LeBron James, Cavs: Understand that James could win the MVP award this season and still put up worse numbers than he did in 2008-09. He was that good last season, so good that the only direction he can go is down. Last season was one of the all-time great seasons by an NBA player; in the post-merger era only Michael Jordan has recorded a better PER than James' 31.76, and His Airness just barely beat it.
So, in all probability, James' output will dip a bit. Another datum points in that direction too -- my research indicates big wing players tend to peak early. James is about the biggest wing to ever play the game, and while he's only 24 he's put a lot of miles on his body in his first six pro seasons.
Group V: A little long in the tooth
These guys didn't fit neatly into any of the above categories, but they're in their early 30s and will be hard-pressed to match their performances from a season ago.
Antonio McDyess, Spurs: McDyess was an absolute monster in the second half of last season, about the only positive on a Pistons team that was going nowhere. However, two factors point against him this season. First, he had a monstrous performance on the boards last season, with a career-high 19.3 rebound rate. Playing next to Tim Duncan is likely going to take a chunk out of those numbers this season.
Second, he's become almost exclusively a midrange jump shooter, taking a bigger chunk of his shots from that range than any player in basketball last season. He shot extremely well from that range, making 47.4 percent -- the fourth-best mark in the league. He's going to have a very difficult time matching that accuracy this season, however. As a result, both his rebounds and shooting percentage are likely to drop.
Stephen Jackson, Warriors: Even before all the trade demands, Jackson was a good decline candidate: He's 31, he's coming off a career-high season in PER and his team is a dysfunctional mess. But what really puts his candidacy over the top is the potential for a trade to another team. Jackson's per-game averages look superficially impressive because he plays nearly 40 minute a game for the league's fastest-paced team; if he goes anywhere else, some serious air will be let out of his inflated numbers.
Mike Bibby, Hawks: Pick an indicator, any indicator: Bibby is 31, the Hawks acquired two players who can play his position, he had his best 2-point shooting mark in five years last season, and only two players shot at the rim less often in 2008-09. He's become a specialist, basically, shooting 3s and otherwise staying out of the way, and he's going to have a very hard time matching last season's output even if he keeps raining 3s.
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james_the_ripper
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Dec 24 2009, 11:12 AM
Post #30
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Kobe vs. LeBron: Who's better?
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Kobe Bryant and LeBron James square off on Christmas Day (ABC, 5 p.m. ET). So it's time to address the most frequently asked question in the NBA:
Who's better, Black Mamba or King James?
Advanced stats clearly favor LeBron. On the other hand, NBA players say almost unanimously that Kobe is the game's best.
My task is to deliver a verdict using statistics and on-the-court evidence. I'm using eight categories to compare these two heavyweights, and we're scoring it like a championship fight. The winner of each category gets 10 points, with the loser getting a minimum of seven. After eight rounds, we'll tally the score to see who is the best player in basketball today. It's not about the past few years or the next few. It's what we see right now. Category No. 1: Perimeter shooting
Kobe is regarded as one of the best jump shooters in the NBA. Although he often shoots it a little flat (something he acknowledges) or falling backward (even when the defense doesn't force that type of shot), he has developed an excellent stroke with better arc. Meanwhile, LeBron has vastly improved his own shooting form, getting an excellent follow-through and better balance on most of his shots.
Kobe's shot selection in the halfcourt is noteworthy; he takes most of his shots inside of 17 feet and beyond the arc. This is a smart strategy, especially because he's shooting worse than 40 percent on long 2s. His short-range jumper has been on target (better than 50 percent accurate), but he's struggling from the 3-point line (29 percent).
LeBron, on the other hand, settles for too many long 2s -- they account for almost half of his attempted jumpers. However, he makes these shots more than Kobe and is making almost 40 percent of his 3s. The drawback here is that success causes him to rely on his outside shot a little more than he should.
In the end, I like Kobe's shot selection better, but LeBron overcomes that with a higher percentage of makes overall. As surprising as it may sound, King James is the better perimeter shooter right now.
LeBron 10, Kobe 9
Category No. 2: Pure scoring
Pure scorers can get buckets from anywhere and against any kind of defense, even in crunch time. They also get to the free throw line a lot. Kobe and LeBron are obviously as good as any who have ever played.
The best scorers attack the paint effectively so they have options on nights when their jump shots aren't falling. LeBron gets to the paint with his size, quickness and ball skills as well as his ability to move without the ball. He's also a strong finisher. Now that he's shooting a career-best from 3, defenses must pick their poison.
The same can be said about Kobe, who punishes defenders with his will to dominate. He's getting about 32 percent of his shots off post-ups (about four times as many as LeBron) while still being a dribble-drive threat and a good cutter. In fact, more than 60 percent of his shots are generated from cutting, driving or posting. (Meanwhile, 60 percent of LeBron's shots are jumpers.)
Both players are great ball handlers, too, which allows them to be prolific scorers without hurting their team by committing turnovers. Kobe is a little more reliable in this area. He's also a better free throw shooter, although LeBron gets to the line more often -- he's scoring more than seven points per game from the stripe.
This is the closest category, as LeBron is also a brilliant scoring machine. I give Kobe the slightest edge because of his wide variety of weapons -- moving without the ball, using ball screens, posting up, utilizing shot fakes to throw defenders off balance, taking advantage of his triple-threat game and twisting around and through multiple defenders. Kobe is a master at every scoring maneuver.
Kobe 10, LeBron 9
Category No. 3: Making teammates better
This might be the easiest category in which to see a clear separation between the two. LeBron is, simply put, the best passing guard/wing since Magic Johnson. He's terrific with the active dribble in isolation or off ball screens, and he's even better before he uses his dribble, reading and reacting to shifts by the defense in preparation for his drives. This creates easy buckets for guys who normally would have a tough time scoring. Most importantly, he'll make the key pass at any part of the game, including end-of-game scenarios.
Kobe is an amazing passer, too. He has great anticipation in the halfcourt. My favorite play of his is when he dribble-drives or posts up to draw the opponent's center or power forward to take just a step or two toward him. When that happens, the Lakers big who becomes open, typically Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol, runs straight to the rim to catch the perfect lob pass from Kobe. It's a devastating play, one that keeps the defending bigs in constant purgatory.
The one fair knock on Kobe is his desire to keep the ball instead of moving it. That he has such great talent around him only exacerbates the problem. He's still a great passer, but he's not on LeBron's level.
LeBron 10, Kobe 8
Category No. 4: Primary defender
An athletic freak entering his prime, LeBron is more active when defending the primary action. He applies far more ball pressure than Kobe and generally is more aggressive with his quick feet. But he does this at some risk to the Cavs' defense, sometimes not forcing his man in any direction because he's too caught up in the one-on-one battle or getting beat to the middle by using poor close-out techniques. However, with LeBron, it's a worthwhile risk. His sheer size and physical gifts create havoc for the player with the ball, often resulting in a forced shot or a turnover.
Kobe, on the other hand, currently reminds me of the smartest and most veteran player in a very competitive pickup game. He's efficient with his movements, and his technique is the best in the league. The Lakers want him to play the top side on every wing catch, keeping the ball on one side of the floor. It's textbook strategy employed by most good defensive teams.
Kobe does not worry much about getting to the baseline slower because he often has two 7-footers available as helpers, and the baseline serves as an extra defender. He also often guards the least threatening offensive wing in the first half and plays off him (see the "secondary defender" breakdown below), allowing his man room to shoot or make a play. A defense aims to force the opponent into taking the worst shot possible, and inviting its poorest offensive guard to shoot or drive is an excellent result. So Kobe's actions are in line with the team's strategies.
I have no doubt that in five to seven years, LeBron will play exactly how Kobe is playing now. And there is currently not much difference between the two in terms of overall results. But years ago, when Kobe was ballhawking a lot more, he was considered one of the top defenders in basketball. That extra pressure makes a difference. LeBron is doing that now, so he takes this category.
LeBron 10, Kobe 9
Category No. 5: Secondary defender
Kobe and LeBron both benefit from playing with solid if not excellent defenders who allow them to roam around and muck up the offensive actions of their opponents.
LeBron has a sixth sense for where the ball is headed and will look to cut the action short. And if the offensive player does not account for him, LeBron will go after his shot. He's not blocking as many shots this season, but he still disrupts a lot of plays by adding that one extra defender to the play side of the floor.
But so does Kobe, who seemingly knows what's going to happen before some of the offensive players do. This is due in large part to his now-legendary ability to watch hours of game tape.
Although Kobe sometimes makes the fundamental mistake of turning his back to the guy he's guarding and watching the ball on the opposite wing or post, he always knows exactly where to go when it's time to locate and close out his man. And because he's often guarding the weaker of the other team's guards, he gets to play like a safety in football.
If his man is left open and chooses to shoot the ball, the Lakers call that a "win" on that possession. This also allows Kobe to make plays on the ball, a reason he's stealing the ball at least twice per game. If he does not steal the ball, at least he does what LeBron does so well, which is foul up the primary actions of the opposing offense.
Both players make a big impact in help defense, but with Kobe third in the league in steals, that demonstrates an added ability at the moment to turn defense into offense.
Kobe 10, LeBron 9
Category No. 6: Impact in transition
LeBron and Kobe are two of the finest wing finishers in NBA history, along with Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Clyde Drexler and James Worthy. But LeBron also resembles Magic Johnson in transition because he often leads the break and pushes the ball down the middle of the court.
LeBron is devastating in this area because he typically waits for a crease to open up before exploding through it for the finish and/or foul. He's also a master at waiting for help to arrive to spread out the defense and finding open guys when the defense overcommits to him. Still, he's even better at finishing when he's the guy getting the pass as he fills the lane -- in fact, no player is better at this skill.
Other times, LeBron will pull up and take some long 2s or 3s, sometimes appearing to do so just to get some rest, because the transition game is the one time when he often faces just one defender.
Of course, that's what Kobe has been doing for years. Yes, he'll pull up frequently for jumpers and 3s, but he's always looking to push and attack. He, too, is often the ball handler initiating the break, so he has no problem pushing early and then, if the matchup is right, going right into his post game by backing the defender down.
Being the alert passer that he is, defenders know they can't just sell out to stop him, and this gives him the break he needs. If they close out on him, he'll pop the ball to the open man. However, Kobe forces shots in this part of the game a bit too often, and this, combined with LeBron's ability to rebound and run, gives LBJ the advantage over Kobe in the transition game.
LeBron 10, Kobe 9
Category No. 7: Rebounding
This category clearly favors the bigger, stronger athlete, so LeBron has better overall numbers as expected. He also plays two positions -- small forward and power forward -- that lend themselves to more rebounds, as opposed to Kobe's situation as a shooting guard.
To be fair, it's better to compare them within their positions than against each other. Plus, we have to consider how well their teams rebound, as a coach does not want his guys fighting for boards to the point where they become less effective.
When studying these two, it's surprising to see that Kobe is the better offensive rebounder. He finds a way to get to the middle of the paint on many shots, the best place to pick up long rebounds or fumbled ones. He's also opportunistic inside, slipping past lazy defenders to grab the ball. Among all 2-guards who play at least 24 minutes per game, Kobe has the best offensive-rebound rate in the NBA. The Lakers are not a strong offensive-rebounding team, so Kobe's contributions make a big difference.
LeBron, on the other hand, has little impact on this part of the game, perhaps choosing to save his energy. He has grabbed more than two offensive boards in a game just twice all season. Kobe has done so 10 times.
On the defensive glass, LeBron is not resting. Among starting small forwards, he has the second-best defensive-rebound rate behind Gerald Wallace. Considering that Cleveland is the second-best defensive-rebounding team in the league, that is impressive.
The Lakers are not a strong defensive-rebounding team, and Kobe is just average in this area. Although there should be plenty of rebounds to grab, he falls out of the top 10 for starting shooting guards. There is a mitigating factor here: L.A. ranks second in the league in margin of victory, so Kobe doesn't have the pressure to rebound as often as LeBron.
So even though LeBron's rebounding stats are better than Kobe's, I don't see a difference between the two as it relates to the position they play. I'm calling this one a draw.
LeBron 10, Kobe 10
Category No. 8: Intangibles
LeBron has strong leadership skills -- he helps his teammates believe in themselves and the team overall. He's vocal, funny and charismatic. To win, and win big, having a larger-than-life persona helps carry a team to new heights. Think Magic Johnson in Game 6 of the 1980 Finals. Yes, his play on the court was tremendous, but his teammates (especially Jamaal Wilkes) played above their heads thanks in large part to what Magic did behind the scenes.
LeBron has that kind of impact on the Cavs. His team can turn to when under duress and trust that good things will happen. He's not a finger-pointer, either, which boosts his teammates' confidence and allows them to fail without fear of being called out by him.
Kobe, though, has a different personality and. thus, a different impact. He's quieter, angrier, more driven than LeBron. He can be a positive leader with his team and is much, much better behind the scenes with his younger teammates than most people know.
Still, I would give LeBron an edge if this intangibles category were based just on the ability to inspire teammates. But there are other intangibles to consider.
Both guys work hard, setting great examples for everyone else to follow. Kobe often does his work before any teammates even arrive at the gym, a constant reminder that their best player is willing to put in extra time to improve. It's hard to imagine anyone working harder on his game than Kobe.
LeBron's growth as a player indicates similar work habits, and both are well-known for their ability to consume hours of tape to prepare for their next opponent. I give LeBron a slight edge in leadership skills and Kobe a similar edge for work ethic.
So who gets the win in this important category?
Well, let's consider one more intangible that impacts every pro sport: The intimidation factor. And in this area, it's no contest. LeBron has evolved into a strong shot-blocker, and his speed and size make for a scary attempt at taking a charge on him. But opponents still focus more on his offense than anything else, not worrying too much about his presence in other areas.
Kobe, on the other hand, can keep opposing guards awake the night before they play him. Nobody wants to be the next guy he hangs 81 on. Or the guy stuck guarding him when he slips into one of his zones. And it's not just his offense that intimidates opponents. Many young players get extra-tight when they know Kobe will hound them on defense.
LeBron is on a fast course to achieving that kind of respect and fear from his opponents, but he's not there yet. In my adult lifetime, three non-centers have scared and intimidated opponents more than anyone else: Larry Bird, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.
Kobe 10, LeBron 9
Conclusion
So who's the best player? Our final tally is LeBron 77, Kobe 75. And it's no coincidence that the final margin came down to the third category: making teammates better.
Kobe's fans will point to his recent championship ring as proof of his ability to play the right way with his teammates. I have no argument with that; he is a great teammate. And he's not only a first-ballot Hall of Famer but also probably one of the top 10 players ever.
But none of those accomplishments suggests that LeBron is not the superior player today. Nor does it negate the fact that sometimes Kobe tries to do too many things himself during games. I believe that to get the Kobe we see today -- full of fire and confidence and a readiness to carry his team through any and all difficulties -- it sometimes means he'll end up doing too much at the expense of his teammates. It's not necessarily a flaw. But it isn't the best outcome, either.
LeBron is not perfect. He has to improve his midrange game and learn to do more damage in the post. Teams have a better chance of beating him if he does not address these concerns. But to my eyes, he's the best player in the world right now. His combination of raw power, size, athleticism, basketball skills and feel -- and his willingness to package that combination in a way that emphasizes making the best basketball play for his team -- separates him from every player in this league.
Many smart basketball people think Kobe is the closest thing to Michael Jordan. I agree. They are probably the two best shooting guards in history. But the league has never seen a player like LeBron James.
And in a decade or so, we may be at this again, only this time sending LeBron into the ring with His Airness to settle the debate of who is the best player of all time.
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